This is the longest winning streak for gold in the last three decades.
Foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 94,000 crore (around $11.2 billion) from the Indian stock market in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows, triggered by the elevated valuation of domestic equities and attractive valuations of Chinese stocks. Before this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. The latest outflow came after a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September 2024.
Shares worth over Rs 50,000 crore (or approximately $6 billion) are set to become freely tradable between now and April 10. Historically, such substantial volumes have been absorbed by a buoyant block-deal market.
Amid intense scrutiny from short-sellers and regulators, Adani group stocks have seen a significant shift in their shareholder base: Relatively opaque foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have given way to more recognisable investors and broad-based funds. The list of large public shareholders - those directly holding at least 1 per cent - is now dominated by entities, such as the state-owned Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), US-based GQG Partners, Abu Dhabi-based International Holding Company, and Qatar Investment Authority's INQ Holding.
According to the committee, single overseas investments of more than 10 per cent in a company should be considered as Foreign Direct Investment while those less than 10 per cent should be classified as foreign portfolio investment.
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
After the massive sell-off since October, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are no longer the biggest non-promoter-shareholders in top Indian companies. This has happened for the first time in over a decade. "At 25.6 per cent ownership of India's largest 75 companies, domestic investors are now larger holders than FPIs for the first time since 2010," said Morgan Stanley strategists Ridham Desai, Sheela Rathi and Nayant Parekh in a note.
Eighty per cent, or 60 of the 75 companies that made their debut on the mainboard this financial year, ended their listing day with gains.
The interplay between domestic and foreign capital will shape India's equity markets.
Mutual funds (MFs) reinforced their record monthly inflows in October with an investment of Rs 87,000 crore (up to October 29), softening the downside pressure on domestic markets. Their prior record for monthly inflows was Rs 48,139 crore in May. This unprecedented monthly buying partially countered record monthly sales by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) of Rs 1.1 trillion last month.
Quarterly earnings from corporates, global trends, and trading activity of foreign investors will guide market sentiment this week, analysts said, adding that benchmark indices may face volatile trends. "The upcoming release of Q2 results will be closely watched, providing insights into corporate performance. "Meanwhile, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran introduce a significant geopolitical risk, potentially leading to increased oil prices and market volatility.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, offloading shares worth Rs 27,142 crore in just the first three days of October due to intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and improved performance of Chinese markets. The outflow came after FPI investment reached a nine-month high of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Monday approved the introduction of a new asset class, designed to offer greater flexibility to fund managers and target investors with a higher risk appetite. The markets regulator also cleared the liberalised Mutual Funds Lite (MF Lite) framework, aimed at fund houses that solely launch passively managed schemes. In another significant move, the board reduced the timeframe for rights issues from the current 317 working days to just 23.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, withdrawing shares worth Rs 58,711 crore in the month so far owing to escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the strong performance of the Chinese market. The outflow came following a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities, after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
'The market's sharp decline recently has shaken the confidence of retail investors, leading to increased selling.'
The advance/decline ratio (ADR) - a gauge of market breadth - has remained negative (below 1) for a second consecutive month. In other words, the number of stocks declining is outpacing those rising, as a brutal selloff by overseas investors and lofty valuations weigh on sentiment. According to BSE data, the ADR for October stands at 0.98 for the second month in a row.
China has stayed on top for two consecutive months in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (EM IMI), after ceding the position to India in August. At the end of October, China's weight in the key EM gauge stood at 24.72 per cent, up from 21.58 per cent at the end of August. India's weight during this period has slipped to 20.42 per cent from 22.27 per cent.
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
Foreign investors have continued selling in the Indian market, pulling out a massive Rs 85,790 crore (around $10.2 billion) from equities this month due to Chinese stimulus measures, attractive stock valuations, and the elevated pricing of domestic equities. October is turning into the worst-ever month in terms of foreign fund outflows. In March 2020, FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities.
Net flows from domestic institutional investors crossed Rs 5 trillion for the first time during a calendar year.
Seasoned bureaucrat and a stickler for rules Finance Secretary Tuhin Kanta Pandey will be at the helm of capital market regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), for three years. The 1987-batch Odisha-cadre Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer, Pandey, would replace Madhabi Puri Buch, whose three-year term ends on Friday.
Small and midcaps are leading the charge in the latest market rebound. Since November 21, when the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty hit their recent lows and slipped into correction territory, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index has risen by 8 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 has gained 5.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 index has risen by 4.7 per cent during this period.
Benchmark indices--Sensex and Nifty--were 0.7-0.8 per cent higher from the Saturday closing. Among the widely-tracked Nifty 50 stocks, 39 advanced and the rest 11 declined at the opening bell. Among the individual stocks, Cipla, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, Power Grid Corp, and Bharti Airtel were the top five gainers, while Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, Britania, HDFC Bank, and BPCL the losers, NSE data showed. On Monday, Indian stock exchanges were closed for trading on the occasion of Pran Pratistha of Ram Temple in Ayodhya.
Foreign investors withdrew Rs 10,355 crore from the country's equity markets in the last four trading sessions this month due to sweeping tariffs imposed by the US on most nations, including India. The outflow occurred after a net investment of Rs 30,927 crore in the six trading sessions from March 21 to March 28. This infusion helped reduce the overall outflow for March to Rs 3,973 crore, according to data from the depositories.
Largecap companies are generally less vulnerable to economic slowdowns than their mid- and smallcap counterparts.
The government is planning to introduce legislative changes to the Foreign Exchange Management Act (Fema) regulations, with a focus on easing the pathway for inflows from a foreign portfolio investor to transition seamlessly into foreign direct investments (FDI) once the FPI surpasses the 10 per cent ownership threshold in a company. This move stems from multiple requests by foreign investors seeking to streamline the reporting requirements that arise when their stakes in Indian firms cross the 10 per cent mark.
Despite recent underperformance, MNC funds have delivered over longer time frames.
The value of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Indian equities was at $542 billion in the March quarter of 2023, a decline of 11 per cent from the preceding year, largely due to the exodus of foreign money from the domestic market, according to a Morningstar report. In comparison, the value of FPI in Indian equities was $612 billion in the January-March quarter of 2022. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the value of FPI in Indian equities fell by 7 per cent from $584 billion recorded in the three months ended December 2022.
Sebi aims to stay proactive as HFT and quant firms like Citadel Securities, Optiver, Millennium, and IMC Trading are expanding rapidly in India, which is home to the world's largest derivatives market by contracts traded.
'Such big falls are quite frequent these days, so do not try to time this market.' 'Use big dips to accumulate quality stocks.'
Market regulator Sebi does not expect a large number of foreign portfolio investors to be impacted by the new beneficial ownership disclosure norms, according to sources. The norms are set to come into effect from February 1 and against this backdrop, the equity market has witnessed significant volatility, with the benchmark Sensex crashing over 1,000 points on Tuesday after shedding early intraday gains. The sources in the know said FPIs which may be required to provide enhanced disclosures are expected to be significantly less than estimated in the consultation paper and the Sebi board note of October 2023.
The last time this happened was in 1996.
During March, FPIs were net buyers to the tune of over Rs 21,000 crore (Rs 210 billion) in equities.
'From tariff tensions and border skirmishes to unrest in West Asia.' 'The worst may be behind us. But any further upmove will now have to come from earnings.'
Foreign investors have poured Rs 57,359 crore into Indian equities in September, making it the highest inflow in nine months, mainly driven by a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. With this infusion, foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs) investment in equities has surpassed the Rs 1 lakh crore mark in 2024, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI inflows are likely to remain robust, driven by global interest rate easing and India's strong fundamentals.
Certain foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), which operate as pooled investment vehicles (PIVs), may not be exempt from the additional disclosure mandates by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) following an update in the standard operating procedures (SOPs) for custodians. An updated version of the SOPs has specified several conditions to be met for PIVs to benefit from the exemptions granted. These include no segregated portfolios, independent investment manager, and investors having pari-passu (equal) rights in the entity.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
Front-running is a fraudulent practice where traders exploit advance knowledge of large client orders for personal profit.
'Stay disciplined, and remain invested.' 'Volatile times are the best to invest in structural opportunities at the right price.'
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