Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 14,790 crore ($1.8 billion) from financial stocks in the first half of August, driven by global risk aversion sparked by US recession fears. Additional factors contributing to the decline in banking stocks included subdued earnings growth in the June quarter, concerns about slowing deposit growth, and stricter liquidity norms imposed by the Reserve Bank of India.
Fifteen companies have launched their initial public offerings (IPOs) in December 2024, making it the best month for public offerings since 1996. Collectively, they have raised Rs 25,425 crore, which also made December the best month in terms of the quantum of funds raised. In December 1996, 33 companies had raised Rs 931 crore.
'Expect FPIs to continue selling for several months until the rupee stabilises.'
Canada's foreign direct investment (FDI) into India doubled after the pandemic years even as India's own investments into Canada show signs of slackening in recent years. The cumulative equity FDI inflows from Canada rose from $1.8 billion in March 2019 to $3.9 billion in March 2024, shows data from the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT). The overall share is up from 0.42 per cent to 0.57 per cent during the same period, suggesting that Canadian FDI grew faster than overall FDI during this period
'Even if India is attractive, FPIs currently lack the funds to invest, as money is being redirected to the US.'
Foreign investors have pulled out a massive Rs 22,000 crore from Indian equities so far this month, due to uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections and outperformance of Chinese markets.
In the Indian stock market, investors are interested in the actions of both domestic and foreign institutional investors (FIIs and DIIs). These groups have wealth as well as expertise in research, which makes them powerful participants in the Indian stock market. Their buy and sell positions have a large effect on stock prices and market sentiment due to the large volume.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 22,420 crore from the Indian equity market so far this month, owing to high domestic stock valuations, increasing allocations to China, and the rising US dollar as well as Treasury yields. With this sell-off, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have recorded a total outflow of Rs 15,827 crore in 2024 so far. As liquidity tightens, FPI inflows are expected to remain subdued in the short term.
Industry players said the sharp sell-off in February forced many companies to put off their listing plans
Amid intense scrutiny from short-sellers and regulators, Adani group stocks have seen a significant shift in their shareholder base: Relatively opaque foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have given way to more recognisable investors and broad-based funds. The list of large public shareholders - those directly holding at least 1 per cent - is now dominated by entities, such as the state-owned Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), US-based GQG Partners, Abu Dhabi-based International Holding Company, and Qatar Investment Authority's INQ Holding.
Escalating trade tensions amid a tariff war after Donald Trump took over as President of the United States (US) could adversely impact global growth and fuel inflation, an article on the "State of the Economy" in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monthly bulletin said.
Eighty per cent, or 60 of the 75 companies that made their debut on the mainboard this financial year, ended their listing day with gains.
The equity benchmark indices posted their strongest weekly gains in years, driven by bargain hunting and optimism over a reversal in foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows. The Sensex rose 558 points, or 0.7 per cent, on Friday to close at 76,906, while the Nifty 50 gained 160 points to end at 23,350. Over the past five sessions, both indices advanced around 4.3 per cent - marking the Sensex's best weekly performance since July 22, 2022, and the Nifty 50's strongest rally since February 5, 2021.
After two weeks of buying, FPIs turned net sellers in Indian equities this week, with a net withdrawal of Rs 976 crore amid a strengthening US dollar and steady rise in US 10-year bond yields, impacting investor sentiment. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) began the week on a positive note, investing Rs 3,126 crore in equities during the first two trading sessions (December 16-20).
After heavy selling in the past two months, foreign investors have staged a strong comeback to Indian equities with a net investment of Rs 24,454 crore in the first week of December amid stabilising global conditions and expectations of potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts. This revival follows significant outflows in the preceding months, with foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulling out a net Rs 21,612 crore in November and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October - the worst monthly outflow on record.
The heightened global uncertainty due to the US "reciprocal tariffs" on India may cause near-term corrections and market turbulence, but the long-term outlook remains constructive, market experts said on Thursday. The US has announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India, citing high import duties imposed by New Delhi on American goods.
Foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 94,000 crore (around $11.2 billion) from the Indian stock market in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows, triggered by the elevated valuation of domestic equities and attractive valuations of Chinese stocks. Before this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. The latest outflow came after a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September 2024.
'Tax rate and stock markets are entirely two different things.'
The Jane Street-Sebi saga is more than a legal dispute -- it's a litmus test for India's ambitions as a global financial hub.
The Indian government has appointed Finance Secretary Tuhin Kanta Pandey as the new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). Pandey, a 1987-batch IAS officer, will replace Madhabi Puri Buch, whose three-year tenure ends on February 28. Pandey's appointment comes at a time when the markets are experiencing bear pressure due to withdrawals by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). Pandey has extensive experience in the finance ministry, having served as the longest-serving secretary in the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) and the Department of Public Enterprises (DPE). He also played a key role in the framing of the 2025-26 Budget and the drafting of the new Income Tax Bill. Pandey's appointment is for an initial period of three years.
Quarterly earnings from corporates, global trends, and trading activity of foreign investors will guide market sentiment this week, analysts said, adding that benchmark indices may face volatile trends. "The upcoming release of Q2 results will be closely watched, providing insights into corporate performance. "Meanwhile, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran introduce a significant geopolitical risk, potentially leading to increased oil prices and market volatility.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, offloading shares worth Rs 27,142 crore in just the first three days of October due to intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and improved performance of Chinese markets. The outflow came after FPI investment reached a nine-month high of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
Mutual funds (MFs) reinforced their record monthly inflows in October with an investment of Rs 87,000 crore (up to October 29), softening the downside pressure on domestic markets. Their prior record for monthly inflows was Rs 48,139 crore in May. This unprecedented monthly buying partially countered record monthly sales by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) of Rs 1.1 trillion last month.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Monday approved the introduction of a new asset class, designed to offer greater flexibility to fund managers and target investors with a higher risk appetite. The markets regulator also cleared the liberalised Mutual Funds Lite (MF Lite) framework, aimed at fund houses that solely launch passively managed schemes. In another significant move, the board reduced the timeframe for rights issues from the current 317 working days to just 23.
Movement in the equity market this week will be guided by a host of macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. Stocks markets concluded the last week on a subdued note, as investors grappled with global uncertainties.
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
Shares worth over Rs 50,000 crore (or approximately $6 billion) are set to become freely tradable between now and April 10. Historically, such substantial volumes have been absorbed by a buoyant block-deal market.
Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, withdrawing shares worth Rs 58,711 crore in the month so far owing to escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the strong performance of the Chinese market. The outflow came following a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September. Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities, after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May.
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
The advance/decline ratio (ADR) - a gauge of market breadth - has remained negative (below 1) for a second consecutive month. In other words, the number of stocks declining is outpacing those rising, as a brutal selloff by overseas investors and lofty valuations weigh on sentiment. According to BSE data, the ADR for October stands at 0.98 for the second month in a row.
China has stayed on top for two consecutive months in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (EM IMI), after ceding the position to India in August. At the end of October, China's weight in the key EM gauge stood at 24.72 per cent, up from 21.58 per cent at the end of August. India's weight during this period has slipped to 20.42 per cent from 22.27 per cent.
The rupee continued to face pressure in the first half of the current financial year (FY26), hitting fresh lows against the dollar, due to strengthening of the greenback, rising crude oil prices, and foreign outflows. Rupee has depreciated by 3.7 per cent so far in the current financial year after starting at a good note in April.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
'The market's sharp decline recently has shaken the confidence of retail investors, leading to increased selling.'
During March, FPIs were net buyers to the tune of over Rs 21,000 crore (Rs 210 billion) in equities.
Benchmark indices--Sensex and Nifty--were 0.7-0.8 per cent higher from the Saturday closing. Among the widely-tracked Nifty 50 stocks, 39 advanced and the rest 11 declined at the opening bell. Among the individual stocks, Cipla, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, Power Grid Corp, and Bharti Airtel were the top five gainers, while Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, Britania, HDFC Bank, and BPCL the losers, NSE data showed. On Monday, Indian stock exchanges were closed for trading on the occasion of Pran Pratistha of Ram Temple in Ayodhya.
'If nominal growth improves and earnings pick up, Indian stock markets could see a rally next year.'
The interplay between domestic and foreign capital will shape India's equity markets.
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
'Such big falls are quite frequent these days, so do not try to time this market.' 'Use big dips to accumulate quality stocks.'
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